FROM: Alan Scrivener, Human Interface Prototypes TO: David Warner, Mindtel, LLC DATE: 11-30-01 [last update 11-29-01 9:27 PM] RE: progress report, Magic/Discover Project First of all I want to say what a priveledge it is to be able to participate in this project, and to contribute my skills to the defense of San Diego, America and the world. Prior to Sep. 11th I was already accumulating information on Biotech companies for the purpose of marketing my business services to them, and just because I enjoy geography, dabble in GIS and have a GPS receiver, I was acquiring the coordinates for each location. This already caused my focus to mainly be on the "golden traingle" region of San Diego and La Jolla, roughly defined as everything within a mile of the triangle formed by I-5, I-805 and Cal-52.
After the Sep. 11th and the beginning of the anthrax attacks, I offered my services to Dave Warner at Mindeltel for San Diego homeland security, specifically the biotech assets. Progress so far has included:
Receiving software and data from others on the Magic/Discover project, especially the Hawaii data gathering, and testing and exploring with what I have received. Receiving NetaTools software and Thing hardware, learning to use it and teaching it to others just to be sure. Participating in architecture and rendering design discussions via email. Discovering sources of satellite photo data and learning how it is organized, and experimenting with it.
7 and 1/2 minute "quads" of San Diego, as defined by USGS
terraserver mosaic photos of the golden triangle of San Diego and La Jolla
higher-res terraserver mosaic photos of the golden triangle of San Diego and La Jolla
Using the AVS software environment on Linux to rapidly prototye data displays and to do usability studies.
AVS flow network editor
Experimenting with parater-controlled rendering of 3D primitives in AVS.
parameter-driven torus module in AVS allows control of size, two radius values, number of facets, color, texture and orientation
Experimenting with plotting 3D primitives on satellite photo data, to understand issuses of callibration and scaling.
colored sphere primitives plotted aginst terraserver mosaic photos of the golden triangle
Currently planning to plot non-sensitive data with obvious analogies to bio-threat scenarios: location of fast-food restaurants in golden triangle and nutritional value of their foods, visualized as linked colored rings.
sketch of plan to visualize nutrtion of fast foods in golden triangle as linked rings
Researching ways to represent uncertainty in data, such as this paper found at the IEEE Visualization Conference 2001 in San Diego.
illustration and caption from Visualizing 2D Probability Distributions from EOS Satellite Image-Derived Datasets: A Case Study by Kao, Dungan and Pang, IEEE Visualization 2001
Researching the history of probability theory and its roots in gambling, to look for ways to represent uncertainty. Found (on a side trip while in Las Vegas for the COMDEX computer conference) a museum of antique slot machines and got some books about them. This lead to several ideas.
antique slot machines show evolution of design
from single "wheel of fortune" to three-reeled "one-armed bandit"
Came up with way to visualize probablities from 0.1 to 1.0 as a pie chart that changes over time. On-line help for this display will show the pie spinning like a wheel of fortune.
proposal to visualize probablities from 0.0 to 1.0 as pie slices
In the book: Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences by John Allen Paulos, he introduces the concept of a Richter Scale of Risk, the log to base 10 of the odds against. A 1 in 1000 chance of death has a Risk Factor of 3. from A Richter Scale for Risks: Professor John Paling, a former Oxford University biologist now working as a risk analyst in the States, believes that half- understood health scares will periodically dominate the media until we develop an accessible means of quantifying relative risks. He has formulated a Richter Scale For Risks as a way of putting anxieties into perspective. "In order for the public to understand the relative levels of risk, there must be some way of comparing new levels of risk in daily life and those we are already familiar with", he said. He got the idea when he saw a woman smoking while trying to find out the benefits of buying a water-purification kit. (See also A lifetime of risk.) Came up with idea of representing small risks as a slot machine display. As in "Dungeons and Dragons" role playing games, one must randomly get a number higher than the risk number to avoid the risk. The number of reels is a rough approximation of the Richter Scale of Risk.
proposal to visualize small probablities (less than 10%) as slot machine displays
When the media report survey results and risk factor, they often talk about "margin of error." But statisticians tell us there is a second important number, which is the confidence level, a probablity from 0 to 1. From a glossary of social statistics: confidence interval The range within which it can be inferred that a population mean lies, with some specified degree of confidence. For example, the 95 per cent confidence interval is the range within which we can be confident that the population mean can be found. It is equal to the sample mean plus or minus 1.96 standard errors. confidence level The probability that a population mean lies within an interval. For example, at the 95 per cent confidence level, the population mean lies within plus or minus 1.96 standard errors of the sample mean (see confidence interval). Came up with the idea of combining the pie chart and slot machine visulaizations, to show both confidence interval and confidence level. Continuing to acquire data on potential targets in San Diego and add to geographical database.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Acculaser Acon Laboratories ActivX Biosciences, Inc. Advanced Targeting Systems, Inc. Advanced Tissue Sciences Agouron Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a Pfizer Co. Alaris Medical Systems Alexion Antibody Technologies, Inc. Alliance Pharmaceutical Corp. Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Anadys Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Ancile Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AndroScience Corp. antennas for KFMB-TV 8, KGTV 10, KGTV-DT 25, KFMB-DT 55 Applied Gene Technologies Applied Molecular Evolution - AME Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Arizeke Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ATOPIX Pharmaceuticals Corporation Aurora Biosciences Corporation Avanir Pharmaceuticals Avanir Pharmaceuticals Aventa Biosciences Corp. Aviva Biosciences Axiom Biotechnologies, Inc. BD Biosciences PharMingen Biopraxis, Inc. Biosite Diagnostics Inc. Biota, Inc. CancerVax Corporation Canji, Inc. Celgene Corp., Signal Research Division Cell Genesys Ceregene, Inc. Chromagen, Inc. Chugai Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. CIStem Molecular Corporation Collateral Therapeutics, Inc. Conforma Therapeutics Cortex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Corvas Int'l County of San Diego Health and Human Services Agancy Cypress Biosciences, Inc. Cyternex, Inc. CyThera, Inc. Dermatrends Inc. Digirad Corporation Digital Gene Technologies Inc. Diversa DuPont Pharmaceuticals Research Laboratories eBiosciences Egea Biosciences, Inc. Elan Pharmaceuticals Elitra Pharmaceuticals Endonetics Immusol, Inc. Invitrogen Corporation Jack in the Box Inc. National Steel and Shipbuilding Company (NASSCO), one of three shipyards in the Marine Systems group of General Dynamics Corporation San Diego Fire Communications/Dispatch Center San Diego Fire Repair Facility San Diego Fire Station 9 San Diego Fire Station 21 San Diego Fire Station 24 San Diego Fire Station 27 San Diego Fire Station 28 San Diego Fire Station 35 San Diego Fire Station 36 San Diego Fire Station 41 San Diego Fire Station 44 San Diego Police, Northern Division San Diego Police, Carmel Valley Storefront San Diego Police, Clairemont Storefront San Diego Police, Pacific Beach Storefront San Diego Police, La Jolla Satellite San Diego Police, La Jolla Satellite Structural GenomiX Tx Selective Genetics